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NFL Picks for Week 10

The second half of the season is here and we’ve got a couple of big games on the schedule with the Bengals traveling to play the Steelers while the Pats go to Indy to face off with the Colts. I’m coming off a strong 10-3 week that hopefully means I have some idea of who is good to pick going into the future. We’ll see.

Last week:  10-3
Season: 85-44 (.659)

The following teams have byes this week: Texans, Giants

All game times are Eastern.

Chicago at San Francisco 8:20 PM (Thu)
They both played like crap last week, losing at home. The Bears were carved up by Kurt Warner while the Niners couldn’t stop Vince Young or Chris Johnson when they needed to. I’m going Bears here simply because I don’t trust Alex Smith enough as a quarterback. I think Cutler will make more plays. Should be a sloppy game as most Thursday ones are because neither team is really rested enough from the week before. Bears 23-17

Buffalo at Tennessee 1:00 PM
The Titans have figured it out. They’re undefeated since Jeff Fisher put on the Peyton Manning jersey. Maybe that was what they needed. I love me some Chris Johnson. Not only is he carrying a very important fantasy team of mine, but he’s Barry Sanders like in that I have no problem watching that offense just for the chance to see him bust out a big run. Against the Bills I see him doing plenty of that. They’re a mess. Titans 27-10

New Orleans at St. Louis 1:00 PM
The Saints are 8-0 while the Rams haven’t lost in two weeks. What a streak for my boys! I think the Rams will keep it close in the first half if they can have long, sustained drives with a heavy dose of Steven Jackson. Once the second half kicks in the Saints will pull away, but don’t be surprised if the Rams do keep it close because the running game is doing pretty well these days. Ah, who am I kidding? This will be a slaughter. Saints 45-14

Tampa Bay at Miami 1:00 PM
Nice for the Bucs getting their first win. Maybe Josh Freeman has a future in the NFL. I like his poise in the pocket. Miami’s not that great, but they’re better than the Bucs. Dolphins 23-14

Detroit at Minnesota 1:00 PM
Detroit on the road with Calvin Johnson still banged up going into Minnesota as the Vikes come off the bye? Ouch. Vikings 35-3

Jacksonville at NY Jets 1:00 PM
These are two teams that aren’t playoff worthy, but aren’t among the five or six worst teams either. They’re in that 6-8 win range with too many problems to get in the playoffs. I think the Jets will be prepared well for this one after their bye and they’ll take it to the Jags, who really aren’t a good road team. Jets 23-16

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh 1:00 PM
This is a different Steelers team than the one that the Bengals beat earlier in the year. When Troy Polamalu is on the field that defense is the best in football. When he’s not on the field they’re a slightly above average group. He’s the most valuable defensive player in the NFL, in my opinion. The Bengals will have a tough time in this game because you can’t run on the Steelers and if Cincy fails to establish the run then it will be tough to pass. On the other side of the ball I see the Steelers offense being able to move the ball just fine with an improved offensive line and a Cincy pass rush that isn’t elite. If you give Roethlisberger time he will pick you apart. I like Pittsburgh to win rather comfortably. Steelers 31-14

Denver at Washington 1:00 PM
Denver’s falling back to the pack after their 6-0 start of the year. I see them winning 9 or 10 games. They’re not consistent enough offensively to win more than that although their defense could carry them. This will be an ugly, low scoring type of game with two above average defenses dominating the play. Since I don’t pick the Redskins I guess I have to go Broncos. Broncos 17-10

Atlanta at Carolina 1:00 PM
I’m going Panthers. Atlanta’s a great home team, but they’re just average on the road. The Panthers have smartened up after realizing Jake Delhomme sucks. They run the ball all three downs a lot of time. Defensively, Julius Peppers is in a contract year and playing like it. He’s been terrorizing teams the last couple of weeks. I see it happening again. The Panthers win thanks to their running game and defense. Panthers 23-20

Kansas City at Oakland 4:05 PM
They both suck. However, I think the Chiefs try harder while the Raiders seem to constantly be bickering, which is enough for me to go Chiefs. Matt Cassel, I hope the money the Chiefs are overpaying you is treating you well. Chiefs 13-10

Dallas at Green Bay 4:15 PM
This is all about momentum. Dallas has it. Green Bay doesn’t. The Cowboys are rounding into form with the defense playing at that elite level while the passing game is definitely clicking. With the Packers it’s clear that they have issues with their offensive line even though Rodgers is having a great year statistically. There are a lot of garbage stats. Defensively they’re not pressuring the quarterback at all, so that leaves them with a vulnerable pass defense. I like Dallas in this game with their defense carrying them. It was a slow start for DeMarcus Ware and crew, but they’re back. Cowboys 31-24

Seattle at Arizona 4:15 PM
Seattle’s the kind of team that I tend to pick at home, but never pick on the road. The Cards are a schizophrenic bunch that got smoked two weeks ago at home to the Panthers and then last week destroyed the Bears on the road. Who knows what Cards team will show up? I think against an average defense like the Seahawks they’ll be just fine. Cardinals 31-20

Philadelphia at San Diego 4:15 PM
Hey Andy Reid, when you’re in the opponents end of the field on 4th down when you’re down 7 with 5 minutes left (with no timeouts of course) and your defense sucks against the Cowboys you should go for it. Instead, you kicked a field goal to cut it to four. What’s the point of cutting it to four when you still need a touchdown? Ugh, Andy Reid still doesn’t know how to manage a game after 11 years of being a head coach. That should be enough for me to pick against the Eagles, right? Wrong. This is like the Summer of George (Seinfeld reference, people) for me. I’m going the opposite. Plus, it’s not like Norv Turner is the new Vince Lombardi or anything. Eagles win just because this league is that fucked up sometimes. Eagles 27-23

New England at Indianapolis 8:20 PM
Game of the year~! At his press conference this week Tom Brady told reporters about when he first met Manning, it was his first start of the 2001 season. Manning, who was in his fourth year at that point as an established Pro Bowler, shakes his hand and is like, “Hey, I’m Peyton Manning.” Tom replies, “no shit.” Hopefully his modeling companies didn’t hear him curse, wouldn’t want to lose the coveted endorsement deals. I don’t mind calling this the game of the year. I love watching these teams play eachother. I’m not about to complain when it comes to seeing two of the best QBs ever (I say regularly that Manning is the best ever) going head to head. I like the Pats in this game. I think Indy’s been squeaking by the last couple of weeks while the Pats seem to be peaking with Welker healthy and the defense looking sharp. With Indy missing their top CB and S it’s tough for me to ride them against an elite passing team like the Pats. Both are playoff teams obviously, so I expect to see this matchup again come January and it’ll be great then too. Pats 27-20

Baltimore at Cleveland 8:30 PM (Mon)
As soon as the Browns announced Brady Quinn was starting I announced that I was picking against the Browns again. Unlike the Browns, I’m consistent in my strategy. Ravens aren’t looking like the elite team we thought they were, but they’re too good to lose a game like this. Ravens 28-13

JC’s Money Picks
Every week I’ll pick four games against the spread or using the over/under. Last week I went 3-1 with my only loss being the Patriots game where they failed to cover by half a point. So close to that coveted perfect week. These odds come from pinnaclesports.com as always.

Season: 21-14-1 (.600)

Saints -13½ over the RAMS. It’ll be over two touchdowns for sure.
Lions/Vikings UNDER 47. I don’t see the Lions scoring much, so the under is attractive to me.
TITANS -6½ over the Bills. I like betting against the Bills while the Titans are starting to figure it out.
STEELERS -7 over the Bengals. Once Pit shuts down the run game the Bengals offense will have problems.

Thanks for reading. See you next week for week eleven.

Enjoy the games.

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