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NFL Picks for Week 11

The bye weeks are done. All 32 teams are playing every week for the next seven weeks until we get to the playoffs. You’d think that means we would have some kind of handle on who’s going to win the games, right? I’m not so sure. The NFL remains unpredictable as always.

Last week: 8-7
Season: 93-51 (.646)

All game times are Eastern.

Washington at Dallas 1:00 PM
I refuse to pick the Redskins the rest of the way although to their credit their offense has improved since Jim Zorn gave up playcalling duties. Still, they’re the inferior team. Dallas ran into a hungry Packer team last week. I think they can bounce back here in a defensive style game. Cowboys 20-10

Cleveland at Detroit 1:00 PM
Maybe the worst game of the year. I’ll pick the Lions because they have the best player on the field, Calvin Johnson. Lions 23-13

San Francisco at Green Bay 1:00 PM
The Packers finally showed up defensively in impressive fashion against a good Cowboys team. The Niners won an ugly game against the Bears. For some reason I think this is going to end up being something of a shootout because I don’t think either team is that good defensively. The Pack are the better team, though. They should prevail. Packers 31-20

Pittsburgh at Kansas City 1:00 PM
The Chiefs seem like one of those teams that tries hard week after week, but they really don’t have the personnel to succeed. The Steelers need the win to stay in the playoff hunt and they’ll get it because the Chiefs won’t be able to put up much resistance. Steelers 33-13

Seattle at Minnesota 1:00 PM
Vikings continue to roll with Favre and Peterson playing incredibly well. The Seahawks are a bad road team. Easy win here. Vikings 34-13

Atlanta at NY Giants 1:00 PM
The Giants have lost four straight after being 5-0, but now that they’ve had two weeks to sit at home to prepare they have to figure things out? I think so. Throw in the fact that the Falcons are likely without their best player in Michael Turner and they’re not a good road team makes me really likes the Giants. Of course, Atlanta could definitely win if they throw the ball downfield against a Giants secondary that is playing very poorly these days. Thing is, Matt Ryan’s really not playing well either. I like the rested GMen here. Giants 24-14

New Orleans at Tampa Bay 1:00 PM
My Rams came close to upsetting the Saints last week because they have the right personnel for it. They have a dominant running back in Steven Jackson. The Bucs don’t really have that, so it’s going to be a challenge for them to put up enough points to get the wins. I like Brees and company to continue putting up the points in sunny Florida. Saints 37-14

Buffalo at Jacksonville 1:00 PM
The Jags have figured things out. Give the ball to Maurice Jones-Drew, then when the defense keys on him too much look for Mike Sims-Walker down the field. The hyphenated dudes on offense are working. They are playing hard defensively too. The Bills have a new coach and a rumor that Mike Shanahan is going to meet with management next week. That doesn’t translate to wins on the field. I like the Jags to roll. Jaguars 24-13

Indianapolis at Baltimore 1:00 PM
I was very tempted to pick against the Colts in this game until I looked closer at the play of Ravens QB Joe Flacco of late. In his last three games he’s thrown only 1 TD while throwing 2 INTs. That’s not good. I’m not sure what happened. Maybe teams are figuring him out. It’s not like the Ravens have a lot of options at WR for him to go to. They’re a predictable team to defend against. With a defense that is still very good, but is not great, I like the Colts here in another close game. The Colts have won their last three by a combined total of just 8 points. I see another nailbiter for the Manning crew here. Colts 23-20

Arizona at St. Louis 4:05 PM
The last three home games for my Rams? Minnesota, Indianapolis and New Orleans. Combined record of 26-1. Now they get a break by playing the 6-3 Cardinals who, by the way, are a great road team. I hate this season. Warner always does well at the Ed Jones Dome and I think that will continue this week although the Rams will put up their fair share of points too thanks to one of the top five RBs in the game, Steven Jackson. Cardinals 31-24

San Diego at Denver 4:15 PM
I thought Denver overachieved a lot early this year, which is why I picked against them so much during their 6-0 start. Now that they’ve lost three straight I feel vindicated a bit. With Kyle Orton so banged up that they might have to start Chris Simms it’s really hard for me to pick the Broncos in this game. The Chargers are playing at a high level earlier than normal, which should scare the shit out of the rest of the league because that team has talent. Chargers 24-10

Cincinnati at Oakland 4:15 PM
To give you an idea of how bad Jamarcus Russell is I want to point out that their new starter Bruce Gradkowski has been released by the Bucs, Browns and Rams in the past three years. This is his fourth stop in his fourth year. Russell, a number one overall pick, is worse than a journeyman that didn’t even journey to good teams. That’s really bad. Bengals 24-3

NY Jets at New England 4:15 PM
The Pats are pissed off after last week’s debacle. Let’s look past the Belichick thing for a second. My question is what happened to the Pats offense in that fourth quarter? They have to close out a game better than that. I don’t like rookie QBs on the road against pissed off teams. Sorry Jets. Patriots 42-13

Philadelphia at Chicago 8:20 PM
The Eagles are road favorites in this game despite the fact that they’re 2-2 on the road and lost to the Raiders in Oakland (I think I bring that up weekly because I was so mad I lost that bet.) Their problem is they have no running game and everybody knows that. You’d think that one of these weeks they’d go into the game with the plan to run the ball 60% of the time instead of their usual 30%. But no, they keep throwing. That’s fine for teams like the Colts or Pats. It’s not fine for the Eagles. McNabb’s good, but he’s not Manning or Brady. The Bears are a tough team to figure out. They started out well with everybody thinking Cutler was one of the best QBs in the game. Lately, though, they’ve struggled big time. I don’t know what’s going to happen here, so from a betting perspective I’m staying away from this one. For the sake of making picks, I’ll go Bears just because there’s something about home dogs in primetime games that I like. Bears 23-20

Tennessee at Houston 8:30 PM (Mon)
You know what’s crazy? If the Titans win this game they would be only a game back from a playoff spot if things went their way. After a 0-6 start they’ve shown a lot of life since inserting Vince Young at QB (it was at least two games too late, in my opinion). They have a special weapon in Chris Johnson in the backfield. When they’re not running it with him they’re throwing it to him and if he’s covered they’re finding other ways to move the ball down the field. Then there are the Texans sitting there at 5-4. Before the year I had them in the playoffs. I think this is the year they find a way to put it all together to get that coveted first ever playoff berth. They have to win a game like this. Get that ball to Andre Johnson on the outside, let him make some plays and find some way to slow down Chris Johnson to get the victory. I think they’ll do it. Barely. Texans 27-26

JC’s Money Picks
Every week I’ll pick four games against the spread or using the over/under. I was 2-2 last week. These odds come from pinnaclesports.com as always.

Season: 23-16-1 (.590)

Chargers -3½ over BRONCOS – The Chargers are heading in the right direction while the Broncos are not.
PATRIOTS -10½ over Jets – Over 10 is a little tough, but I think they’ll win this one comfortably.
Bengals -9½ over RAIDERS – Loving the Bengals defense right now.
DETROIT -3½ over Cleveland – Hey don’t judge me for betting on this game. Betting against the Browns is a smart move!

Thanks for reading.

Enjoy the games.

John Canton

Categories: NFL
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