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NFL Picks for Week 12

There are only six regular season weeks left. Time flies, eh? I’m Canadian, I can say eh. I went 11-5 last week with three of my losses coming in games that I flip flopped on all week. Hopefully I can nail them this time around. I went 2-1 on Thanksgiving, so let’s see how I do on the remaining 13 games this week.

Last week: 11-5
Season: 104-56 (.650)

All game times are Eastern.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta 1:00 PM
I like the Falcons big here. It’s pretty basic. The Falcons are 4-0 at home and 1-5 on the road. The Bucs are 1-5 at home and 0-4 on the road. By week 12 trends start to develop. Don’t overthink it. Falcons win big here even if Michael Turner doesn’t play again. Falcons 27-10

Miami at Buffalo 1:00 PM
I’m feeling an upset here because I tend to like home dogs in divisional games. The Bills actually played with heart last week for their new coach and realized that Terrell Owens is still a very good player if he touches the ball. In Miami’s case, Ricky Williams is really running the ball well and they could definitely put some points on the board if the establish the run. The problem is I don’t have enough faith in Chad Henne to pick him to win on the road in a tough environment. I’ve been in that stadium in Buffalo. There’s a lot of wind. It’s tough to adjust to sometimes. If the Bills make some plays on defense they should score enough to get the win. Bills 27-21

Cleveland at Cincinnati 1:00 PM
The Browns are atrocious in every way. The Bengals pissed me off big time last week by losing to the Raiders. I didn’t even need them to cover. Just a win, that’s all. That’s what they’ll get this week. One week late for me. Bengals 20-3

Seattle at St. Louis 1:00 PM
My Rams are 0-5 at home while the Seahawks are 0-5 on the road. Somebody has to win, right? You thought I’d predict a tie there, didn’t ya? Nah, I’m going Rams. I know Steven Jackson’s questionable, but I think he’ll play. He doesn’t need practice. Give the man the ball. He’ll make it happen…unless Kyle Boller throws it away. Wouldn’t be the first time. Rams 23-20

Carolina at NY Jets 1:00 PM
The Jets, losers of 6 of 7, are three point favorites. Um, what? Mark Sanchez is a mess at this point. The defense isn’t stopping the run and the pressure seems to be getting to Rex Ryan, who needs to stop talking as much as he does. It’s not helping. The Panthers will win thanks to their excellent running attack and because they’ve finally realized how much Jake Delhomme sucks. Welcome to the club, Panthers. Panthers 24-23

Washington at Philadelphia 1:00 PM
There are a number of bad teams in the league that are pesky at home, but they’re absolutely garbage on the road. The Redskins fall into that garbage category although after looking at their scores they really haven’t been blown out away from home. I think they’ll keep it close while they lose. They know the Eagles well, so they should cover the nine points. As for the Eagles, they’re destined for close games because they’re a predictable offense that doesn’t run the ball enough. Teams know how to defend them. Eagles 24-17

Indianapolis at Houston 1:00 PM
They played three weeks ago with the Colts winning 20-17. Houston missed a field goal late. Last week Houston lost again because Kris Brown missed another field goal late. They are either going to play the best game of their lives and win or completely implode. I’m going with the implode route. The Colts are focused, hungry and sure of themselves. The Texans are probably wondering what kind of team they are. In a situation like this you have to like the undefeated team here because you know what you’re getting with Peyton Manning at the helm. Colts 27-20

Kansas City at San Diego 4:05 PM
The Chiefs absolutely fall into that “pesky at home, garbage on the road” category. The Chargers have figured it all out. They’re a very dangerous team right now. It’ll be a comfortable win here. Chargers 34-10

Jacksonville at San Francisco 4:05 PM
The 4-6 Niners need this one if they have any hope of making the playoffs while the 6-4 Jags need to keep winning to get in the tough AFC. It’s tough to forecast a game when you’ve got two teams that play only once every four years. They don’t know eachother, so to me when that happens I like going with the better offense. I think the Niners will have a tough time stopping Jones-Drew, Sims-Walker, Garrard-Quarterback and…wait a second. Team hypen tricked me. That’s okay, though, because I’m picking them. Jaguars 17-16

Arizona at Tennessee 4:15 PM
With the way Chris Johnson is running right now (1200 yards and a ridiculous 6 yards per carry) I’m not picking against him. Can’t do it. Vince Young is playing well enough that he’s making those key plays on third and short that Kerry Collins had trouble converting earlier in the year. If they had benched Collins in week three instead of week six they might be in a playoff race right now. The Cards are good team on the road as their 5-0 road record shows, but I think that’s an inflated number due to their easy road schedule. I’ll roll with the Titans. I’m a believer. Titans 30-21

Chicago at Minnesota 4:15 PM
The Vikings are playing as well as anybody right now while the Bears are playing as poorly as some of those 1 or 2 win teams out there. Cutler’s completely off his game. Now he’s on the road against the best defensive line in football? I really don’t like Chicago’s chances. When (not if) Cutler turns it over the Vikes will capitalize like the always do thanks to the lethal Favre/Peterson combo. I like Minny to roll here. Vikings 34-17

Pittsburgh at Baltimore 8:20 PM
This is a tough call. The Steelers beat them three times last year, but I think it’s fair to say that neither team is as good as last year. The 5-5 Ravens are in must-win mode because you’re probably going to need 10 wins to get in the AFC playoffs. The 6-4 Steelers are in the same boat. They need this one after dropping a game to the woeful Chiefs last week. I read a stat the other day that the Steelers haven’t lost three straight since Mike Tomlin started coaching them three years ago. I think that stat will hold up here even with Ben Roethlisberger dinged up. The Ravens offense hasn’t been good the last four weeks. They don’t have enough threats in the passing game and Flacco’s regressed since the start of the year. Both teams are reeling. I’m going to go with the champs in a typical low scoring Steelers/Ravens game full of hard hits and great defensive play on both sides. Steelers 17-14

New England at New Orleans 8:30 PM (Mon)
I’m feeling like this will be a shootout. When two amazing offenses aren’t familiar with eachother I like to think that there are going to plenty of points. If it’s hard for teams that play them regularly to stop them, how are they going to stop eachother when they’re unfamiliar? To me, the Saints are going to feel more pressure here, which could lead to some mistakes on their end. Of the two QBs, I think Brees is more prone to making mistakes. I’m fully aware that Darren Sharper has been great for the Saints at safety all year, but they also haven’t faced a duo like Moss and Welker. I think they will be too much for the Saints. All week I’ve been leaning towards the Pats. I just think they’re better than the 3 losses that they have and the Saints aren’t as good as the 0 losses they have. I don’t see myself betting on the game or rooting for anybody in particular. All I know is that when I watch the game I’m going to enjoy watching two elite QBs going head to head on a big stage like Monday Night Football. If people ask you why you love the NFL tell them to watch on Monday and say, “for games like this.” Patriots 34-31

JC’s Money Picks
Every week I’ll pick four games against the spread or using the over/under. I was 2-2 last week for the second week in a row. I’m still looking for that 4-0 week. I’ve hit 3-1 a bunch, but I want that 4-0. Maybe this week. These odds come from pinnaclesports.com as always.

Season: 27-20-1 (.574)

CHARGERS -13½ over Chiefs. Beat them 37-7 earlier in the year. I think it happens again.
VIKINGS -10½ over Bears. Chicago’s terrible right now. Vikes are on fire.
Panthers +3 over JETS. I like the road dog against one of the worst home favorites you could find.
Bills/Dolphins OVER 40. I feel like there will be a lot of points. Not sure why. Just a gut feeling more than anything.

Enjoy the games.

John Canton

Categories: NFL
  1. Anonymous
    December 3, 2009 at 8:05 PM

    Pats over saints? Drew Breeze RAPED Belichick. I admit, I thought it would’ve been closer. But man oh man if the Saints can play like that in the playoffs – well let’s just say that Brett Favre will have to see just how many miracles are left in that 40 year old arm.

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