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NFL Picks for Week 16

This week is full of home teams as the favorites. The only two road favorites are the ones in the Sunday night and Monday night games. It feels like an easy week is coming, which probably means a lot of upsets. Who knows anymore? Last week’s 8-8 straight up record for me was very disappointing. I’m hoping for a big time bounce back week with double digits in wins. Of course, going against a red hot Chargers team on Christmas Day wasn’t a great start for me.

Last week: 8-8
Season: 145-79 (.647)

All game times are Eastern.

Buffalo at Atlanta 1:00 PM
The Falcons get to face the #3 QB of the Bills on the road. I think that should mean an easy win for a team that probably would be a playoff team had they not been bit by the injury bug. I think it’s a comfortable win for them too. Falcons 24-10

Kansas City at Cincinnati 1:00 PM
You see the Chiefs give up nearly 300 rushing yards to an average RB at home last week? This week on the road against a Pro Bowl RB like Cedric Benson is going to be a disaster for the Chiefs. Cincy’s playing for the #3 seed, so they’ll have come out of it with a convincing victory. Bengals 30-13

Oakland at Cleveland 1:00 PM
Picking a tie is stupid, so I’ll go with the coin toss. Heads it is. Browns 23-17

Seattle at Green Bay 1:00 PM
One of my worst preseason picks this year was picking the Seahawks as the NFC West division champs. I knew they were hurting, but I didn’t realize they’d be THIS bad. The Packers, my NFC Super Bowl pick (not a bad choice at this point), are going to destroy them here. Packers 37-13

Houston at Miami 1:00 PM
Tough game. They’re both erratic teams, which is why they’re 7-7. Home field doesn’t seem to matter to either of them and neither one has a trend that really sticks out in terms of giving them an advantage. What do you roll with: The Texans with their pass first offense or the Dolphins with their Wildcat based attack? I just hope it’s an entertaining game. I’m going with the Texans for two reasons: 1) I picked them to make the playoffs before the year and 2) I picked too many home teams this week. What? You expected some kind of deep analysis? Are you insane? This is in the NFL. Don’t overthink it. Go with your gut. And in this holiday season when our guts are full of too much food you need to trust it more than ever. Texans 31-28

Jacksonville at New England 1:00 PM
I hate New England so much. It goes back nearly 8 years now when they beat my Rams in the Super Bowl, but it’s moved on to this year. Tom Brady killed a first place fantasy team for me with his terrible performance last week. Not even 150 yards at home to the Bills? Ridiculous. I lost by 6. If I started Flacco I would have won easily. So yeah, fuck you Patriots. I will be even more pissed about it when Brady throws for 350 with 3 TDs this week. I know it’s coming and I will still hate it. With that said, I like the Jags covering the points here. Patriots 27-23

Tampa Bay at New Orleans 1:00 PM
John: Hey Tampa, have fun travelling to face the best offense in the NFL a week after they played like crap. Good luck. Saints 51-10

Carolina at NY Giants 1:00 PM
One of my best preseason predictions was picking each of these two teams to miss the playoffs. I remember getting heat for it at the time considering they were 1-2 in the NFC last year. I just wasn’t that impressed with either of them and it looks like I’ll be right although the Giants are still alive. I have no idea what to expect in this game. The Panthers looked amazing against the Vikes. Can they do that on the road? I’m not sure. I’ll go with the Giants because Eli Manning’s playing really well and I think they can slow down the Panthers running game enough to get the win. Giants 23-13

Baltimore at Pittsburgh 1:00 PM
Game of the week. I love when these teams play because it’s such a hard hitting game. The problem is that unlike last year’s three classics, the defenses are not nearly as good this year. The star safeties, Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu, are both out while the offenses have become passing teams first. Instead of the low scoring games we’ve come to expect, I feel like there will be a lot of points. I also think Baltimore’s the better team, so I’m rolling with them. That’s probably a good thing for you Steeler fans out there. Ravens 27-24

St. Louis at Arizona 4:05 PM
My team has won six games in three years. Six fucking games! I say it every week because it boggles my mind. Every September I start the year with such false hope because I forget how bad the team is in games like this. I’m glad I suffer from that annual memory loss. Cardinals 41-7

Detroit at San Francisco 4:05 PM
Lions on the road? No thanks. Niners 28-10

NY Jets at Indianapolis 4:15 PM
I’m not picking the Jets on the road here. Indy says that 16-0 doesn’t matter, but I doubt that. They’re going to destroy a fading Jets team here. Colts 34-13

Denver at Philadelphia 4:15 PM
The loss to the Raiders has to be demoralizing to the Broncos. Meanwhile, the Eagles are in their annual late season surge. They’re playing their best ball of the year. Gotta roll with the homers. Eagles 27-13

Dallas at Washington 8:20 PM
Enough of the Redskins in prime time! I’m so tired of this team. I avoid them on Sundays during the year as much as I can, but I can’t avoid them when they’re the only game on. What’s sad is that next year they’ll be on in prime time just as much because the media loves this team. I’ll pick the Cowboys here because they’re in the playoff push and they’re simply the better team. I like the Skins to cover because the history of this series says that they have close games. Cowboys 23-20

Minnesota at Chicago 8:30 PM (Mon)
A lot of people are writing off the Vikings for getting destroyed by the Panthers and Cards in recent weeks. I’m not about to write them off. I think this is big for them, though, because they need to win this one convincingly in order to convince me that they can make the Super Bowl. The Bears COULD raise their game here in prime time, but I don’t think they’re good enough. The Favre/Peterson combo will be too much for an average Bears defense to handle. Plus, I really don’t like Jay Cutler this year. Vikings 31-14

JC’s Money Picks
Every week I’ll pick four games against the spread or using the over/under. I was 2-2 last week. These odds come from pinnaclesports.com as always.

Season: 36-27-1 (.571)

BENGALS -13½ over the Chiefs. I like the Bengals to win comfortably.
FALCONS -9 over the Bills. This is against Buffalo more than anything. I like Atlanta with Ryan starting.
COLTS -5½ over the Jets. Not enough points. They won’t let it be close.
Steelers/Ravens over 42½. I feel like this will be high scoring.

Thanks for reading. I’ll see you next week for week seventeen. Also, in case you’re wondering I will continue doing the picks all the way through to the Super Bowl.

Enjoy the games.

John Canton

  1. Aaron
    December 28, 2009 at 1:37 PM

    The money picks improved from last week.. (The Over 42 1/2 edged with a 43 points game).

    I think all of us swung and missed on NYG getting pummeled at home against Carolina… However I was all over the Jets and Tampa in outright victories and cleaned up with those bets. The Saints have the best offense in the world… but IMO, a bottom third defense. What happended to their offense on Sunday? I still don’t know, but their defense and epcial teams are really starting to get exposed.

    Other than that, these picks were pretty spot on, other than liking Cincy to cover.. Cincinatti hasn’t beaten anyone by more than 10 points this year, have they? I’ll never take the Bengals as a double digit fav.. never.

  1. January 3, 2010 at 6:51 PM

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